National cold-rolled prices were mixed this week

　　Emotions are also repeated, and shocks will be adjusted next week

　　1. Review of market conditions

This week, the cold-rolled market was mixed, ranging from 10-100 yuan, among which East China and Southwest China performed well. Specifically, the current inventory in East China varies, and the total inventory in the Shanghai stock market has not changed much, and the inventory has gradually tended to a stable range. There are some low-priced in-transit sources for sale. On Thursday, under the pressure of the sharp decline in the futures, the 4,000 yuan source of goods was released. Most of the traders in other Changzhou, Hangzhou, and Wuxi areas are currently under high inventory pressure, and some are on the verge of liquidation. The market demand is not good, and most terminal enterprises mainly consume their own inventory first, which makes the market inventory consumption slow. Most of the inventory is mainly cold coils from Shandong Iron and Steel, Handan Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, etc.; Central China has made up for the decline. Among them, some agents in Wuhan have started to return to Han one after another, and a few have officially quoted externally, and the base price of coils is 4070 -4100 or so. However, he said that it is expected to resume work at the end of March and early April; the warehouse and logistics in the local market have not yet resumed, and the government will notify the specific situation in the future, but Huangshi, Yichang and other places have gradually recovered, and steel mills and traders have begun to resume work flexibly, and a small number of production The personnel are under closed management, and other personnel are still mainly working from home. The recovery of the Wuhan market is just around the corner. The overall digestion rate of cold rolling in the Wuhan market is slow this week, and the inventory of merchants is too large. The inventory of large households is about 4000-5000 tons. Slightly ups and downs, the overall market demand has picked up from last week, and the daily shipment of some merchants is around 50-200 tons. However, due to the continuous release of overdraft part of the market demand in the first two days, the transaction of high-priced resources on Wednesday and Thursday was slightly Significant pressure; the steel market in the southwest region has resumed normal operation, and 90% of dealers have started work. According to the feedback from dealers, the number of telephone inquiries customers has increased compared with last week, and the downstream purchase volume has gradually increased. However, the current market inventory is much higher than the level of the same period last year. Most dealers said that the focus of their work is still mainly to return funds from warehouses and shipments, and there is a certain room for negotiation in transaction prices. In terms of inventory, the resources of major steel mills have arrived in warehouses one after another, and the rate of shipment is similar to the rate of arrival, and the market inventory is slowly digested; North China is high and low, and shipments are better than last week. It is understood that in the first half of the week, the goods fluctuated higher, and after Tianjin and Handan rose, according to feedback from some merchants, the transaction was acceptable. However, futures fell on Thursday, some merchants with poor shipments chose to sell at lower prices, and some merchants had abandoned orders. In general, good times and bad times have a big impact on the external environment. Recently, the arrivals of mainstream steel mills have increased, and the mentality is more divergent; South China is strong at first and then weak. Prices have risen and costs have increased. On Monday, the positive black macro side led to this wave of price rises. At present, the cold-rolled inventory problem has not been well relieved, the terminal pressure on the port is still serious, and the downstream construction has not met expectations, so it has not been able to Continuing to support prices, prices have fallen since Tuesday, especially Liugang Resources, which can be adjusted 3-4 times in a single day, and emotions are easily infected.

2. Next week's trend prediction and operation suggestions

At the beginning of the week, in the process of raising futures, there was also a small commotion in the spot market. Distributors in North China, South China, and Southwest China pushed up their quotations. Customers who waited and watched also took the initiative to enter the market to place orders, but the fly in the ointment was that the forces of high Not strong, the number of orders is limited. On Wednesday and Thursday, with the "deflation" of the capital market, the spot market returned to its original state again, and even oversold in some areas. Shanghai Bengang dropped to 4,000 yuan, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was below 3,950 yuan. In terms of transactions, North China was better than East China. There is a receipt situation, the downstream demand in the southwest region is gradually increasing, and the merchants are very pricey. Taken together, the demand has increased compared with the previous period, while the inventory data has been declining, but the external environment has fluctuated greatly, and sentiment has also fluctuated. Therefore, it is expected that the price of cold rolling market will fluctuate and adjust next week.